Why Scotland is not just a problem for Labour

Labour is doing a lot of soul-searching, wondering what went wrong with their election campaign. In total, they lost 26 seats. On the face of it, that is bad news. But that single figure masks a lot of information. Surprisingly, Labour produced a net gain of 14 seats in England & Wales. The reason they lost seats overall was because of Scotland.

Scotland overwhelmingly voted for the SNP, returning these numbers of MPs and popular vote shares in the 2015 general election:

          MPs  Vote %

SNP      56  50.0

Labour    1  24.3

Tory      1  14.9

Lib Dems  1   7.5

Yes, Scottish Labour lost 40 MPs but the Lib Dems also lost out, losing 10 MPs in Scotland. All three of the traditional Westminster parties - Labour, Tory, Lib Dems - need to do some soul searching over what each party did so wrong in Scotland to return them just one MP each.

I therefore think it is wrong to single out Labour's failure in Scotland and not address why the other parties failed just as catastrophically.

If we look at what percentage of the vote each party has had for each election since the end of World War Two, we see an overall picture of decline for the big two, Labour and Tory.

Both Labour and Tory had their peaks in the post-war period. Although the Tories began their decline in the 1950s, it was only a decade later that Labour began theirs. Their vote share transferred to the SNP and the Lib Dems.

Despite Scotland's hatred of Thatcher, in the 1983 election Labour's share of the popular vote decreased from 1979's 41.5% to 35.5%; the only vote share to increase in that election was the Lib Dems. This suggests Scotland saw the Lib Dems as an anti-Tory party and have punished them ruthlessly for their Tory-Lib Dem coalition government.

For Labour, it's been an up-and-down picture ever since. Even the Blair years didn't return Scottish Labour to its post-war highs. Since the creation of the Scottish Parliament, Labour has suffered a general decline: the constant refrain was that Labour sent its successes to Westminster but its failures to Holyrood. The 2015 election was Scottish Labour's worst defeat since the end of World War Two, giving them just 24.3% of the vote.

The Tories have not benefited from Labour's decline though: the Scottish Tory vote share of just 14.9% is also its worst since the end of the war. Although the Scottish Lib Dems' 7.5% share is higher than its 1945 5.6% share, its only a paltry 1.9 percentage points greater. Although a slight approximation, I think it is fair to say that all three traditional Westminster parties have effectively suffered their worst defeat since the end of the second world war, to the benefit of the SNP.

My understanding of it is two fold.

One, the independence referendum educated the Scottish electorate and the majority came to the conclusion that Scotland's interests could best be served if all its MPs belonged to the one party. Whether in a hung parliament or not, this was the only way to finally give Scotland the representation it needed at Westminster.

Previously, Scotland's vote was split across various parties. These parties were controlled from London. Scotland's MPs were not seen as Scottish but as party members that had to toe the party line. Party politics was more important to them than Scotland. Given England has 533 MPs to Scotland's 59 MPs, these parties are seen in Scotland as running Westminster for England. Thus, Scotland's MPs got caught up in English politics. This is seen as a detriment to Scotland.

Second, the Scottish Government is seen as a great success and to be more relevant to Scotland than Westminster. It's therefore important to obtain more powers for Holyrood and the only way to do that is to vote SNP. It may be that all future general elections in Scotland are seen as purely a mechanism to boost the powers that the Scottish Parliament has.

Northern Ireland is already treated as a separate world altogether when it comes to politics, with none of the traditional Westminster parties - Labour, Tory, Lib Dems - fielding candidates there. I think these results show it's time to treat Scotland as a separate world too. The politics that drive Scotland are different from those among the rest of our family of nations and it's about time our family woke up to that fact.

Scotland is not just a problem for Labour. Labour, like the Tories, would be better concentrating their efforts in the England & Wales region where both parties increased their seats and popular vote share.

I think the message from Scotland is clear: even if we do agree to remain in the Union, Westminster is not required.