When I got up this morning and saw that Kate was in hospital in the early stages of labour, my heart sank. The last thing we need is for Prince William and Kate to have a new baby during the last week of the general election campaign.
(While writing this, it's been announced that Kate has had a healthy baby girl.)
The Telegraph has a very helpful article showing how the arrival of Prince George on 22 July 2013 affected the polls. Surprisingly, YouGov showed that, the day after the birth, the Tories dropped from 35% to 32% but Labour increased from 38% to 39%, thus increasing Labour's lead from 3% to 7%.
Although Labour's lead dropped a bit, a definite increase remained over the following week. Understandably, the Telegraph's coverage is focussing on English politics and this time there is no mention of the SNP. Perhaps in England there will be a small Labour bounce or perhaps it will make no difference, given the parties the English can vote for are all generally pro-Union and pro-Monarchy anyway, so it won't change their voting habits.
But up here in Scotland, things are different and we might see the emotional goodwill wished to William and Kate transfer into pro-Unionist party votes.
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